allaboutpoker

Whether or not to call on the river in poker can be a difficult decision, but once you read this blog you should have a better idea what factors to consider when facing a river bet.

For this blog, we’re going to assume that you hold something which has some value, but is not worthy of betting or raising yourself.  Also, you don’t have enough of a hand to raise, and the circumstances don’t warrant attempting a bluff raise*.

The basic rule here is that if  your pot odds are better than your odds of winning, you should call, and if not, fold.

Suppose you hold one pair, aces, in a seven card stud game.  On the river, your opponent bets.  At this time, you notice that you are getting 4 to 1 odds.  Basically, if your hand  has a 20% chance of being best, you break even by calling here.  However, if you think there’s a 30% chance that your opponent has not made two pair, you must call, because your pot odds are better than your odds of winning. A 30% chance of winning equates to almost 2:1 odds against your having the winning hand.** Note that you’re getting far better than that from the pot tho.

In this situation, you will lose more often than you will win.  However, you will win so much more when you win, that you must call.

Here’s a hand I played a few years ago that once again showed the value of “calling for pot odds.”

No limit hold’em.  One player, Mr Agro, has been raising every pot preflop.  He ALWAYS bets if he makes one pair or better on the flop.  Preflop I have KQs in the big blind.   Agro raises and six players take the flop, which is T A 3 with one of my suit.  Everyone checks.

On the turn one of my suit hits.  It’s checked to Agro, who bets $20.  Two calls back to me.  I note my pot odds and I’m getting plenty enough to draw to my flush and gutshot straight.  Three see the river.

On the river, an offsuit deuce comes.  I check and Agro bets $40.  The third player folds and it’s back to me.  Note I only have king high here.  However, from the way Agro plays, I don’t think he has a pair, or he would have bet the flop.  I think he took a stab at the pot on the turn because of his extreme aggression.  It’s not that likely he actually caught anything here.

More importantly, I note the pot odds, which are 280:40, or 7 to 1.  There was $240 in the pot, plus his $40, and it cost me $40 to call. I figure that I’m good at least once in eight tries here, as I actually put him on QJ.  I call and he shows precisely QJ.  He flips out mad at me “how can you make that call?”  I just smile and take the chips, flipping the dealer a tip along the way.

Although there was some player and hand reading going on here on my part, the primary consideration I considered was my pot odds.  And I figured I would probably lose, but that there was more than enough to try for the longshot bluff-catching call, due to the large pot I would win if I was right.  It was cost effective to try, so I did.

Sometimes these calls are referred to as “peace of mind calls.”  Because folding on the river when you have the winner will make you very angry with yourself, but losing one more bet won’t.

We’re going to discuss more about playing on the river in the future, including overcalling, inducing bluffs, bluffing, and more.

PokerGuru

* by the way, the bluff raise should be an extremely rare  play if you play well.

** in time you should learn how to convert percentages to odds, and vice versa

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