allaboutpoker

What’s a mathematical catastrophe in poker?  The end result of not properly evaluating your pot odds verses your chance of winning, and thus tossing a hand you would have won.  Essentially mathematical catastrophe means folding the winner on the river when facing a bet.  Now every good player will occasionally fold the winner.  If you never folded a winner, you’d be playing too loose and subject yourself to excessive value betting by your opponents.  However, folding the winner should be a rare event, and should never happen in extremely large pots.

Suppose you have AA and flop top set.  Tons of betting goes down, the pot grows large, then huge.  The turn puts three to a flush on the board.  More betting goes down.  The river puts a four-flush on the board, of which you have none.  Now your lone remaining opponent bets.  Reluctantly, you fold your set.  At this point, your opponent turns over middle set, no flush, and shows it to you!  You’re livid!  But you should be angry with yourself, because you allowed this to happen.  This is a mathematical catastrophe.

Suppose in this situation there were 20 bets in the pot and you folded for a single bet.  You didn’t compare your chance of having the winner to the pot odds you were getting.  You only needed a FIVE PERCENT chance of having the winner to justify calling here!  Against a single bettor, with such a large pot, there is essentially no hand of any value I would fold here.  Even a lone pair of deuces would be justified in calling!

The reason for this is expected value.  The expected value of having a 5% chance to win 20 big bets is one big bet.  Therefore you would break even either way.  However, if you were justified in believing that you actually had a 10% chance of having the winner, you absolutely MUST call!  This is true despite the fact that you expect to lose that last be most of the time.  But the huge pot you will win every once in a while more than makes up for all those times you lose one more bet.

Just in case you’re having doubts, always consider there to be at least a 10% chance that any given opponent is bluffing when you’re heads up.  That should push you over the edge towards not suffering a mathematical catastrophe in a very large pot.

Everyone will eventually make a bad fold and suffer a mathematical catastrophe.  It sucks when this happens, you’ll be totally pissed off at yourself for hours afterwords.  But when it happens to you, make it a learning experience.  Next time don’t turn down those huge pot odds just to try and save one lousy bet.  The mistake of making a bad call is nothing compared to the mistake of folding the winner for one more bet.  Always remember that.

PokerGuru

OK.  This is a hand that I played at the Venetian in a $4-$8 game a couple years ago.  I’m calling this blog “HAND” mostly as a joke, poking fun at the twoplustwo.com forums, and their general disliking of when someone else posts a hand with a very non-specific title.  It should be noted that not every hand is a winner, nor is every one a loser, but given my alcohol intake for this one, indulge me a winner for once.

And yes, I’ve been drinking!  So sue me!  I can blog when I wanna!!

OK.  So I’m having a nice Gin Martini at the time…

So I’m in the SB with AJo.  It goes limp, limp, limp, RAISE.  The button, a very solid and knowledgeable player, raises it.  Being that I’m in the SB and out of position, it’s not the greatest call ever, but I can pretty much count on six players for two bets each to the flop, so I call.  BB calls and a middle position player goes kamikaze all-in for his last $4.  I didn’t notice he was so close to all-in, or it would have put me more to the cusp of folding vs. calling, but whatever, I’m in now…  six take the flop for three bets each, 18 small bets in the pot.

Well the flop comes T K x rainbow.  Note the rainbow, as it will make every bit of difference in the world shortly as to whether I’m in or out.  I check and it’s check,  check, bet, RAISE by the button… an excellent raise, BTW.  I have been cussin’ and discussin’ with the button for about an hour, having a drink and shootin’ the breeze, and he’s not only a cool dude, but he absolutely knows his stuff when it comes to poker.  A true man to be respected.  And a  good raise to boot.  I check my pot odds and lo and behold… I’m getting 10.5:1.  And whaddaya know… 10.5:1 is precisely the odds I need to draw at a gutshot for the next card only!  I call, figuring that it’ll be called around and I’ll actually get slightly better than that.  Forget the implied odds, when you’re getting straight up odds to go, it’s time to go.

So I went.  I call and it’s called around.  Given one was all-in, I had three active opponents and myself left in the pot, plus one all-in.  26 small bets in the pot total.

The turn is an offsuit blank, flush no longer possible.  I check and it’s checked to the button.

This is very important.

The button turns to me, bets, and asks “If you knew I had a set, would you still call?“

I look at him and say “Yes.”

I call and two others call.

The river is my perfect card, a queen, making me broadway and giving me the nuts.  I bet.  Everyone folds to my worthy opponent on the button, who makes the crying call.

I show my straight.  He shows TT for the flopped set, precisely like he said he had on the turn.

I scoop a monster pot, he tosses and says “nice hand.”

Usually when someone says that, they don’t mean it, but this time I knew that he did mean it.  He was an advanced player who could calculate pot odds on the spot, and he knew I played it the only way that made any sense.  I tip my hat to an opponent like this, who loses with grace and respects good play when it happens.  Kudos.

I won a very large pot because I followed the proper strategy, given the situation and what I held in my hand.

Note that if there was any two-flush on the flop, I would NOT have called the button’s raise. If you can figure out why, you’re miles ahead of most limit hold’em players you’ll encounter in a casino.

PokerGuru

OK.  I’ve been dancing around and cleverly avoiding the whole thorny issue of preflop play in Texas Hold’em.  For a reason.  It’s complicated, and I can’t hope to blog it all quickly.  Nor do I intend to or promise to blog the entirety of preflop strategy all at once, or even in a non-stop series.  Plus it’s sooooo different in limit, no-limit, ring games and tournaments that whole volumes could be written on it (and are written on it, virtually every decent poker book has a large preflop strategy section).

So in this primer, I’m going to discuss some of the things you should consider in preflop play for limit hold’em ring games.

First and foremost is that when you’re playing poker, there are different types of mistakes you can make.  Some have more dire consequences than others.  Folding the river for a single bet can be a complete mathematical and emotional catastrophe if you folded the winner.  I’ll probably blog that topic soon, mathematical catastrophe.  However, playing a hand preflop can lead to another type of mistake, a far more common one… where a small initial mistake leads to a number of follow-up mistakes that could have been avoided.

So when you’re choosing your hands preflop, you need to pick hands that aren’t likely to lead to multiple mistakes later in the hand.  Let’s look at an example of this principle:

Limit hold’em.  A strong, tight player raises under the gun (UTG), then a super-tight player, also in early position, reraises.   You look down and see AhQc and call.  The UTG caps it and three of you take the flop, which is A K 3 rainbow.  You play all the way to the end, enduring several more bets and raises, and get shown AsKs by UTG and KK by the tight player.  However, any reasonably experienced and knowledgeable player would have folded AQ in this situation, thus saving themselves a whole bunch of money.

AQ looks pretty, but in this situation, it’s JUNK.  In fact, AQ is worse than junk here; you’d have been far better off with 76s!  Not that you should be calling three bets cold with 76s either, but at least 76s is not likely to be completely dominated beyond belief if you play it here, and you can probably get away from it much easier than AQ.

However, AQ has considerable value in other situations, like this one:

You’re three off the button and everyone folds to you, you look down and see AhQc.   You open for a raise and only the big blind calls.  The flop comes down A K 3 rainbow.  BB bets and you raise it, BB calls.  The turn and river are irrelevant.  You bet both times after he checks.  At the showdown he turns up A7 and you take the pot with your queen kicker.

Note that in both situations, you held the exact same two cards, but in one situation you were miles ahead, and the other you were roadkill, baking in the hot Texas sun!  Preflop values of different hands in hold’em vary greatly, depending on the situation.

Let’s look at another example:

You have 76s in early position and limp in.  The player to your left raises, the cutoff reraises, and the button caps it.  Both blinds fold and it’s back to you.  You are now looking at calling three bets cold.  You really must fold here.  You’re wishing you simply hadn’t called the first bet at all.  However, you foolishly call and the flop comes down 7 K K.  Now you’re REALLY wishing you had folded, because you’re virtually guaranteed to have almost no chance of winning whatsoever.

Same two cards, different skituation…

You’re on the button with 76s.  Everyone limps in and you also limp.  The SB completes and the BB checks.  The flop comes down 7 K K.  It’s bet, raise, reraise when it gets to you.  Quite obviously, you leave a flaming trail of fire between your hand and the muck when you quickly toss in your cards.

What’s the difference here?  Preflop pot odds.  When you limp on the button with everyone in, you’re getting like 8:1 or 9:1 preflop.  The other situation didn’t even come close, and you were out of position as well.  Hands like 76s don’t hit the flop big very often, and thus they need a cheep price with large pot odds preflop to be profitable.  This won’t happen when you’re in early position very often.

These examples show just the tip of the iceburg on why certain hands are better than others preflop, and why you must be very careful in making your choices of what to see the flop with.

The best recommendation I can make for complete beginners, who haven’t read any books, is this:

If it doesn’t reach, and it doesn’t match, throw it away.

• 76 reaches (both cards can be used to make a straight)
• 39 doesn’t reach (there is no straight that contains both a three and a nine)
• KhQh matches (two hearts can be used to make a flush)
• 7h2d does not match (you can’t make a flush using both cards)
• 22 matches (pairs would count as a match)

These are just the very beginning of preflop playing principles, not the end-all of preflop advice!!

We’ll talk more about this later.  MUCH more.

PokerGuru

In this second installment of flopping a set, we’re going to look at some more examples, focusing on medium sets, about JJ-88, with a third of your cards on the flop.

You hold JJ and raise from late position, four players take the flop, which comes

Js 6d 5c

There’s a bet and a raise when it gets to you. Your choices here are to reraise or call.  I’d probably reraise, hoping the initial raiser would cap it, then bet out on the flop, giving you the chance to raise yet again.  There’s a possible straight draw out there, so slowplaying is probably the wrong play here.

On the turn the 2c hits the board.   There’s another bet to you, but the middle player just calls.  You should raise again here.  If you get reraised, and the middle player calls again, cap it.  However, if you get flat called, and the middle player now limp-reraises*, it’s likely he has a straight, so just call.

On the river, if you don’t fill up, you’re going to have to call any bets, but if there’s no bet, you should bet again.

You have 88 and call a raise from the big blind, heads up play ensues.  The flop comes

8d 3s 2c

I would bet  out, hoping to get raised, so I could reraise.  Here’s the thing.  If you try to slowplay, you’ll probably make less overall money.  Betting out here gives your opponent a chance to follow through with the obligatory raise, as expected, because he’s the preflop raiser and wants to keep the initiative on his side.  Here’s an even better reason to play it this way: he might have an overpair, in which case you’re likely to get plenty of action.  You’re hoping to raise, reraise, and cap it** on every round.

Also, if you try to slowplay, you’ll make less overall money when your opponent has a hand like AK, especially if you try to check-raise.  This is because you act first, and your opponent can easily check behind.

Regardless of what comes on the turn or river, you’re going to take this one to the end, making sure at least one bet goes into the pot on every round.  Rarely, your opponent will have an overpair and wind up catching a bigger set than you.  This happens, but remember, when the K hits the turn it’s far more likely he’s got AK than KK.  Don’t sweat the rare times that you lose here, relish the many times you will win.

You have 99 preflop.  There’s an early raise and several calls, you call on the button and six take the flop, which is

9d 8s Jd

This is a good flop, but a dangerous one too.  There are many players, lots of possible draws, and the possibility you are already beat by a straight or three jacks.  Don’t worry about the three jacks, set-over-set is rare, and when it happens, you’re just going to lose a bundle on that hand.  I’d be more worried about the straights, straight draws, and flush possibilities.

There’s a bet from the preflop raiser and several calls, you should raise.  You can’t force anyone with a decent draw to make a mistake, but you should charge them more anyway.  The raiser calls and so do three others, five see the turn.

Let’s talk about three turn possibilities.

If you fill up, don’t stop betting or raising.  Even though the draws are probably totally dead, they will still keep paying anyway, and you should charge them as much as you can!

A second (of many) possibilities is that a rather bad card for you will come on the turn.  Even if you were best on the flop, a diamond, six, seven, ten, queen, or king could mean you are now beat.  If there are four to a straight on the board, just call any bets.  Otherwise bet yourself if it’s checked to you.  If you get raised, call all bets no matter what, because you have ten outs and more than enough pot odds to call all bets.

Lastly, imagine a total blank on the turn, say the 2c.  Continue betting if checked to you.  If you get check-raised, call.

Do not fold the river unless the board is very scary and you’re facing calling two or three bets cold.  No matter what happens, do not fold the river for a single bet.  If you fill up, your play should be obvious.

Next blog we’ll talk about small sets.

PokerGuru

* we’ll discuss the limp-reraise and its implications in a future blog.

** there may not be a limit on raises if it’s heads up.  In that case, keep raising till the cows come home, because you’ve flopped the nuts (for now)

This installment of flopping a set will focus on playing the small sets, 22-77, with a third of your cards on the flop.

The primary thing to remember about small sets is that they can and do get beaten.  Thus you must play them fast.   Let’s get straight to some examples:

You have 55 and limp on the button after four limpers.  SB calls, BB raises, everyone calls and seven players see the flop:

7s 8d 5c

You’ve flopped bottom set here, a great flop, but you are vulnerable in many ways, primarily straights.  If you happen to lose to a bigger set here, sevens or eights, well, you’re just going to have to lose some money.  Bet, raise, reraise, cap it, get the money in the pot now, while you’re probably ahead.

The turn shows itself and it’s the 9s.   A frenzy of betting action comes your way.  You’re obviously thinking that someone might have a straight here, but you have more than enough odds to see the river, no matter what the action.

On the river you fill up.  Early position bets and two players call.  Raise it.  Call any reraises, and consider capping it based on your reads of the players.  Someone who reraised the turn is likely to be over-valuing a straight.

Next hand you’re in the cutoff and every single person limps to you!  You look down and see 22 and call.  The button calls and so do the blinds.  Family  pot!

The flop comes down

2c Js Kd

Bottom set, great hand for you on this flop!  It’s not likely someone has a higher set as there was no preflop raise.  However, there are straight draws galore out there, so charge them to play.  An early player bets and two players call, then the player on your right raises.  You should reraise here.  Make anyone with a draw pay out the nose to see another card here.  Bad draws like Q9 won’t be getting the odds they need, and should fold, but if they call you charged them the maximum to make their mistakes.

Four players see the turn, which is the 9c.  This is not a good card because QT is a commonly played hand, and the nine would have completed the open ended straight draw.  There’s an early bet and a raise to you. Call it and all further reraises.

On the river, there’s no help, as the 3h comes.  Check, bet to you.  Call it.  You’re likely to be shown a straight here, but you won’t always, and the pot is way too big to fold!  DO NOT FOLD!!!!!!!!

Next, you’re in the SB with 33.  There are two limpers and you complete, BB checks.  Flop is 3 4 5 rainbow.  You should bet, hoping to get raised, so you can reraise.  You bet and get raised, there’s a cold call, you reraise and your opponent caps, another call and three see the turn.

The turn shows a 5d, giving you the boat.   Bet out.  given that your opponent capped it, there’s a good chance he’s got a straight, and you might get raised again, allowing you once again to reraise.  Unless the river is a five, keep betting on the river.  If a five hits, check-call.

You’ve got 77 and everyone folds to you on the button.  You raise and the SB reraises, BB cold calls, you call.  Three see a flop of

7s 6d 2s

The SB bets out and the BB calls, you raise, the SB reraises, and the big blind folds.  Here I would flat call, because it’s heads up, you have the current nuts,  and it’s very likely your opponent will bet again.  If you reraise now and he checks the turn, you’ve only extracted an extra small bet from him, but if you now wait till the turn, you’ve got a big bet from him!

The turn comes the 3d.  Your opponent bets and you raise, he folds.  You have played well, gotten the most from your opponent, and won the pot.  Be happy.  Toss your hand in face down and go to the next hand.  Don’t forget to tip the dealer now!

Just remember, small sets should be played fast.   Resist the temptation to get greedy and try to slowplay till the turn or river.  Bet and raise, reraise and cap the flop.  Never give a freebie on the turn unless the board is very scary, and almost never fold the river unless it’s painfully obvious you have zero chance of winning.

On the topic of sets, I’ve given some examples, but there are hundreds of possible scenarios, and I can’t blog them all.  You have to learn some of it by experience.  Feel free though to contact me if you have questions, or a specific scenario you’d like me to analyze for you!

PokerGuru

Flopping a set with a pocket pair is one of the best situations you can find yourself in while playing hold’em.  Today, and in upcoming blogs, we’re going to look at some of the considerations you should make in deciding how to play these somewhat infrequent, but highly important hands.

A set is when you have a pocket pair in your hand and a third of your cards comes out with the flop, giving you three of a kind.  This is different than trips, which is when two of one of your unpaired cards comes out on the flop.  Although in both situations, you have three of a kind, a set is more valuable than trips, because it is concealed, whilst trips is far more obvious to your opponents.

This series of three blogs will discuss the basic considerations of flopping a set in limit hold’em.  We’ll discuss a few situations in each blog, touching on the general strategic considerations, and the specifics of each example.

There’s a saying about flopping a set you should remember:

• If you flop a set, and lose, and you didn’t lose a lot on the hand, you probably played it wrong.

You want to play sets fast, especially if there are obvious straight or flush draws against you, and when there are lots of players.  Slowplaying is not normally recommended (and will be the topic of a future blog).

This blog will focus on the BIG sets, AA-QQ, and how to play when a third of your cards shows up on the flop.

When you’re holding AA or KK, you know it’s going to be a raised, reraised, or capped pot preflop, because you will be the one who was doing the raising.   This will also be true 99% of the time when you have QQ as well.* Therefore you know the pot will be pretty big, perhaps even very big by the time the dealer gets around to putting out those oh-so-important three cards we call the flop. Some considerations:

• The bigger the pot, the less you want to slowplay.
• If you were the preflop raiser/reraiser, it will be expected that you’re going to be betting anyway, so don’t disappoint.
• You still might be vulnerable to draws.
• The draws will be willing to pay, due to the large pot, so you should give them every opportunity to do so.
• There will always be a chance someone else will have also flopped a big hand.
• There is a very good chance you will improve by the river, which will usually give you the winner with those big sets, and will most often give you the winner, even with the small ones.
• A set combines the playing properties of a big hand on the flop with a big draw on the flop.

Let’s look at some examples:

You have KdKc and raise preflop from late position.  Five take the flop, which comes

Ks Qs 7c

The small blind bets, two players call, and it’s to you.  RAISE.  There are flush and straight draws out there, and you want to get money in the pot, as much as you can and as fast as you can, while you have the best hand.  Charge those draws!

You raise and the SB reraises.  Both players call again.  CAP IT!!!**  You cap it and everyone calls, four players in the pot.

The turn comes the Jd.   This isn’t your best card, not by a longshot.  But it’s not all that likely that you’re beat yet either, as someone would need specifically AT or T9 at this point.  The small blind bets again, one player folds, one calls, and it’s to you.  Raise it again.  If you get reraised by the small blind, you’ll need to slow down, fearful of the straight.  Ts9s or AsTs are likely hands for the small blind at this point, but there’s no guarantee that’s what he has.  If you don’t get reraised, you’re likely in good shape.

On the river, you’re going to need to do some hand reading, and watch the board for possible hands your opponents could hold.  Obviously you won’t like it if there’s four to a straight out there, or if the flush comes, but the pot is so big now you’ll also probably not be able to fold either.  However, often you will make a full house (and occasionally quads) on the river, in which case you’ll need to figure out what will make you the most money, which will be betting or raising again.

Another example:

You have AA and raise preflop from early position.  It gets reraised behind you, the big blind calls two cold, and you cap it.  Three take the flop, which comes

Ad Qs 4c

You will be expected to bet here, so bet it if the blind checks.  If you get raised, reraise.  You’re hoping your opponent has a hand like AK or AQ, even though this is not very likely.  If he has KK, he’s probably going to fold no matter what, so not to worry there.  But there’s a chance he could have QQ too, which would be fantastic for you, as you stand to make a lot of money from him.  Don’t discount  the blind either, he could have KJ or JT and foolishly stay in, trying for a gutshot straight.  Charge him to get there!

The turn comes the 3h.  Continue betting, hoping to get raised, so you can reraise back.

The river card will only hurt you here if someone makes a straight, or if someone makes quads, which is so remotely unlikely that you should never worry about that scenario.  If you have top full and someone makes quads, you’re going to lose a lot of money, so get over it.  If they make a straight, you’re going to be kinda hoitin’ over the whole thing, but don’t worry about it, because you played the hand the best you could, forcing your opponents to make mistakes the whole way, foolishly chasing you.  If you make the boat or quads yourself, just bet and hope to get called.

There are literally hundreds of possibilities when it comes to sets and flops, and I can’t blog them all.  In this series we’ll try and touch on many of the common ones though, giving you an overall idea of what to consider when you flop a set.

PokerGuru

* The preflop raising implications of QQ are beyond the scope of this blog, and will be discussed at a later time.

** I normally assume a bet and three raises per betting round, although some poker rooms do allow more than three raises.  You’ll have to extrapolate the strategies in those situations.

Anytime the board pairs in hold’em, the situation has changed.  This is especially true if you are holding or drawing to a hand that is a flush or lower.  You must learn how paired boards change the dynamics of play in hold’em in order to avoid losing large amounts on some of your big, but not huge hands.

The nut flush is fantastic when it’s the nuts.  When you have As9s and the board reads 4s 5s Jc Ts, you’re loving life.  You can’t be beaten.  At least for now that is.  But what do you do when the river pairs the Jack?

4s 5s Jc Ts Jd

Now you have the nut flush, but not the nuts.   There’s a big difference.  Look at the board and look at what the nuts is now. Quad jacks.  Followed by jacks full of tens, a hand that is quite likely, given most players like to play JT, especially if it’s suited.  Now your flush is no longer the nuts, and you very well may be beaten.  Caution is in order!

Anytime the board pairs, you need to realize that trips, full houses, and occasionally even quads are possible hands your opponents might hold.  Because of this, overpairs, two pairs, straights and flushes don’t have the same value any longer.  A couple of examples:

1. You have AA and the flop comes down K J 7.  There’s a bunch of action, and the turn comes a 6.  Again there is action and the river comes down a K.  You’re in trouble.  Check and call, if you’re facing two bets cold, fold your aces.

2. You have As8s and the flop comes Ks 9s 7h.  There’s plenty of action and the turn comes down a terrific 2s.  More action ensues.  You bet and get raised, you reraise and your opponent calls.  The river is a K.  You must now only check and call, as it’s very likely you’re facing  a full house.

There are hundreds of examples like these, but I think you catch my drift so far.

In addition, paired boards sometimes mean you should not even bother to continue.  For instance, say you hold JTs and the flop comes KKJ.  There is no need to continue here in most cases, as even if you improve, you’re likely to be second best or worse anyway.

There are a few cases where a paired board is quite good for you, even though you don’t have trips or better.  For instance, say you raise preflop with AA, get reraised by one opponent, and you raise again, capping it.  Flop is K 2 2 rainbow.  This will often be a great situation for you, even if three or four handed.   The reason is that many players will have AK here, leaving you way ahead.**  Also, suppose someone has KQ here and catches a Q on the turn.  Your aces-up still beats their kings-up.  It’s not that likely in a short handed pot that was capped preflop that someone will have a deuce here.

Finally, when you’re the one who’s benefited from  the pairing of the board, you should take advantage of it.  If you have JT and the board is

4s 5s Jc Ts Jd

then you should be trying to extract bets from the player holding As9s!

There are too many specific situations to list everything you need to know about paired boards, but this should get you started.  Just remember that paired boards need extra scrutiny, and often extra caution on your part, especially if you don’t hold the nuts.

PokerGuru

** note: it’s possible someone might have KK here, thus having flopped a full house.  However, it’s far more likely they’ll have AK than KK.  We’ll discuss how to account for these considerations later, in a more advanced look at probability and hand reading

Determining “the nuts” in Hold’em is essential.  You should always know exactly what the nuts is!!

What’s the nuts? The best possible hand given what is on the board.

The least the nuts can ever be once the river card is dealt out is three queens.

You should sit with a deck of cards and deal out some boards and practice figuring out what the nuts, second nuts, third nuts etc is on every board until you can instantly identify the nuts without error, ever time.   Let’s look at some examples:

Each board will have 1, 2 and 3 listed afterwords, indicating the first, second and third nuts.  The corresponding hand will be in parentheses.

Ts Js 4d 9h 3c

1. King high straight (KQ)

2.  Queen high straight (Q8)

3.  Jack high straight (78)

Js Qs 2d 4d 7h

1. Three queens (QQ)

2. Three jacks (JJ)

3. Three sevens (77)

4s 4h Ks Jd 3s

1.  quad fours (44)

2. kings full of fours (KK)

3. jacks full of fours (JJ)

9s 8s 6s 6d Ah

1. Straight flush, ten high (Ts7s)

2. straight flush, nine high (7s5s)

3. quad sixes (66)

9s 8d 7s 4s 2h

1. Ace high flush (AsXs)

2. king high flush (KsXs)

3. queen high flush (QsXs)

Ks Kd Qs Jd 4c

1.  Four kings (KK)

2. kings full of queens (KQ)

3. kings full of jacks (KJ)

Always remember that if the board is paired, the nuts is always at least four of a kind, but could possibly be a straight flush.  If no straight flush is possible, start looking at the highest possible full houses for the second and third nuts.

It should be noted that just because you’re drawing to the nuts on the flop, does not mean that you will have the nuts on the river if you make your draw!  For instance, if you have the nut flush draw on the flop, make your flush on the turn, but the board pairs on the river, you no longer have the nuts!

Also, when considering which draws you want to play, you should always consider if you’re drawing to the nuts, and if not, what your chances of winning will be if you make your draw.  Also, when you’re not drawing to the nuts, you should always consider the chance that you’ll make your draw, but lose to a better hand (possibly the nuts).  Sometimes these considerations will cause you to choose not to draw to certain hands.

Make sure you can instantly and accurately identify the nuts.  This is cruicial to being able to play hold’em well.

PokerGuru

In limit hold’em, you’ll often find yourself playing a suited ace with a small kicker.  Because Axs can make the nut flush, it’s a very valuable starting hand in a loose limit hold’em game.  You won’t play it in every game, every time you get it, but in low limit, loose games you usually will.

About the best flop you can get with a hand like As7s would be Qs 9s 7c.  This flop is actually better than  flopping the nut flush, because you will get far more action, and will make more money in the long run.

Note the texture of this flop.  Lots of hands will have something on the flop, top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, a worse flush draw than yours, various straight draws,  including open enders and gutshots.

Now note what you have: the nut flush draw.  There are nine spades which give you the nuts.  In addition, several of these spades are likely to make someone else a straight or two pair, which means you’re very likely to get action on your nut flush when you make it.

You also have bottom pair with an overcard.  Someone with a hand like AJ will often stay in on the flop.  You want them to, and you want them to catch a good, but second-best hand!  Look at how good you’re sitting if an ace comes on the turn.  Now you’ll have two pair, but AJ will only have one!

Basically with a pair and a flush draw, you have 14 outs to improve your hand.  That’s three aces for two pair, two sevens for trips, and nine spades, for a total of 14 outs.  You are usually the favorite to win, even if you don’t have the best hand on the flop.   This is very significant in that you’re going to want to get more money in the pot by raising, but also you want to keep your opponents in the pot as well.

A couple examples:

In the first situation, you’re on the button with multiple players in the pot.  On the flop, the small blind bets and several players call.  You absolutely MUST raise here, it’s a value raise, and it’s a good one.  In fact, you are hoping the betting gets capped on the flop with multiple players here, and you’re going to be the one to cap it if possible.

Next, suppose you’re in the blind here.  On the flop, you’re probably going to want to get the betting started, unless you know someone immediately to your left if likely to bet or raise.  If that’s the case, check, and then when someone in early position bets, you should probably raise them, especially if multiple players are in the pot.

14 outs means approximately a 52% chance of improvement.  Note  that improvement does not always mean that you have the winner!  But so often you will here that you want lots and lots of money to go into the pot while you’re in such a great position.

When the turn comes,  you’re still in good shape, even if you don’t immediately improve.  You may want to slow down on the betting and raising, but you’re certainly not going to fold for any number of bets (on an unpaired board, and you would rarely fold even if the board paired). *

There are some situations where you might raise your draw again on the turn as well.  These would occur when again, there are multiple players, an early position bet, and you’re in late position.  However, if you aren’t sure, it’s ok to be less aggressive on the turn with a big draw like this.  If you raised and got reraised back,  you would usually assume your opponent to have flopped a set.  Thus you’d be very concerned about making your flush, but facing a full house or quads when the board pairs on the river.

River play here is based on what you wind up with, of course.  If you miss completely, you’re often going to fold.  But don’t worry about the fact that you played aggressively earlier in the hand if that happens.   If you make two pair, you’re probably going to bet if checked to, or call, and occasionally raise (if circumstances warrant).  With trips you’ll often bet or raise but will occasionally  just call if you fear a full house.  With the nuts, play is quite obvious, but when you make the flush on a paired board, you’ll need to do some hand reading.

I hope this helps you play this type of powerful hand better in the future.

PokerGuru

*Paired boards will be discussed more thoroughly later on.

I’d just like to say a few things to everyone who reads this blog.

First off, thank you! I write this for everyday people who want to learn about poker, and those are the people who I most appreciate: everyday, real people.

Second, Please do ask me if you have any questions or would like me to blog on a specific topic, whether advanced or basic. Answering questions is a major source of blogging inspiration for me when it comes to poker.

Next, I’d like to say a little about the frequency of my posts here. I don’t want to blog just to blog. If what I say isn’t inspired, it doesn’t get posted. I want my blogs to be reasonable, truthful, helpful and interesting. If I pushed myself to blog every single day, sometimes I wouldn’t live up to my own standards. So they’re coming out when they’re ready. You don’t try to rush a porterhouse on the grill, and I’m not rushing my blog either.

I do plan to cover preflop strategy, both in limit and no limit hold’em, but those topics are so advanced and complex it will take many blogs to cover them. Also, no matter what advice I give on preflop strategy, it’s such a complex topic that exceptions can always be found, and thus remember, it’s only advice; sometimes you should deviate from it due to circumstances. Most every bit of poker advice comes with a disclaimer that different situations require different approaches. However, much of poker is very clear cut, and I hope to make sure you won’t miss anything that’s clear cut.

Finally, sometimes I’m not around due to work considerations. When I’m on a job, I’m not writing about poker. I’ve been very busy lately!!

Thanks once again to everyone who’s supported this blog, especially the wonderful gals at sugarloot, OLS, and those really fun and weird buoys and gulls at badscience.net/forums.

PokerGuru